Ten years following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that divided the country and triggered disorder, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially fraught and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The team have studied the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is imminent, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unity has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or advocates want to engage with even the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unity or the current situation. Both composes two essays that strive for impartiality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and societal figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the concept that there could be valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate report they support unification but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his era is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified arguments, he said. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and somebody will in the end lose but all factions has got valuable insights to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster should join the dialogue, said the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
