🔗 Share this article

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has announced that proposals for a ceasefire agreement negotiated with American diplomats are poised to be finalised in a matter of days. Following this, U.S. representatives will submit the terms to the Russian leadership.

Negotiations in Berlin Produce Major Headway, But Key Hurdles Remain

After two days of discussions in Berlin, US officials indicated on Monday that approximately “90%” of the disputed points between Moscow and Kyiv had been resolved. Although the outlook appears positive, the path to ending the war remains uncertain, especially given Russia's lack of participation from the current dialogue.

Early Tuesday morning, Zelenskyy noted that the US Congress was anticipated to consider defense assurances and that a complete package of agreements might be ready “today or tomorrow.” He added that, the U.S. would hold consultations with Moscow, leading to high-level meetings possibly this weekend.

Security Guarantees and International Support

“We are counting on five documents. Some of them pertain to binding security pledges: formally ratified, that is, approved and endorsed by the US Congress,” the president remarked to the press. He clarified that these guarantees would “reflect the collective defense clause” of the Nato alliance.

Earlier, US officials did not provide precise information regarding the likely contents of the security package or the consequences if Moscow attempted to seize more land after a peace deal. Officials did confirm that the U.S. does not intend to deploy troops on the ground in the country.

Leaders from the UK, France, Germany and eight other European nations issued a joint statement that forces belonging to a “coalition of the willing” could “assist in the rebuilding of Ukraine’s forces, in securing Ukrainian airspace, and in supporting safer seas, potentially by conducting operations within Ukraine.”

They stopped short, however, of proposing these measures would constitute assurances equivalent to Nato’s article 5. Furthermore, there is little sign that Russia is anywhere close to agreeing to the type of package being negotiated between the U.S. and Ukraine.

Moscow's Stance and Land Issue

The following day, the Kremlin stated it had not seen the specifics of the plans for security assurances. Additionally, a senior Russian diplomat, Sergey Ryabkov, asserted that Russia would not agree to troops from NATO member states operating in Ukraine “under any circumstances.”

The primary obstacle between the Ukrainian negotiators and their American counterparts remains the issue of land. One proposal involves Ukraine relinquishing the areas of the Donbas region it currently controls, while Ukraine prefers to freeze the lines. “We are discussing the territorial issue. As is known, it is one of the key issues. At this point, there is no agreement on it yet,” the president remarked after the Berlin talks.

American mediators, led by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, has suggested a compromise solution. This framework would see Ukrainian forces withdraw, but Russian troops would not advance, with the resulting zone established as “a free economic zone.” Russia has indicated it could use internal security units instead of the military in such an area, suggesting it would still seek to control the territory.

“I want to stress once again: a ‘free economic zone’ is not controlled by Russia. Not legally or in practice do we accept the Donbas region – its currently occupied areas – as belonging to Russia. Categorically,” stated Zelenskyy.

Next Steps and Potential Outcomes

The way ahead is uncertain how Moscow and Kyiv will resolve the territorial issue. Zelenskyy has earlier mentioned that a negotiated arrangement such as a free economic zone could be conceivable if the citizens of Ukraine approved it in a national vote. The major impediment is expected to arise when the proposals are put to President Vladimir Putin of Russia, who has shown no indication he is prepared to concede on his war aims.

“Should Russia refuse all proposals, we will face exactly what we are experiencing on our plane right now – turbulence,” commented Zelenskyy, recording the comments after his plane took off from Berlin.

“I am confident the United States will apply sanctions pressure and provide us with additional armaments if they reject the deal. In my view, that would be a fair request from us to the United States,” he concluded.